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João Cruz

Welcome!
I'm an Economics PhD student at the University of Surrey, expecting to finish my degree in June 2024. My research is mostly centered around theoretical Econometrics and Statistics, yet I also do applied work related with trade, market cycles, wages and the gender pay gap. Click below for my CV.

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Education

  • Jun/2024
    Oct/2019

    University of Surrey, United Kingdom

    MRes+PhD in Economics

  • Dec/2017
    Sep/2015

    Lisbon School of Economics and Management (ISEG) - Universidade de Lisboa, Portugal

    Master’s Degree in Applied Econometrics and Forecasting

  • Jul/2015
    Sep/2012

    Lisbon School of Economics and Management (ISEG) - Universidade de Lisboa, Portugal

    Undergraduate Degree in Mathematics Applied to Economics & Management

Research

Research fields

  • Econometrics
  • Statistics
  • Machine Learning
  • Trade
  • Market Cycles
  • Wages & Gender Pay Gap

Works in Progress

Efficient Estimation and Inference with Binary Response Dyadic Regression

Dyadic data is known to exhibit a distinctive form of correlation known as dyadic clustering. To study binary network data, several latent variable models have been developed to account dependence, yet the latent structures proposed can be rather complex and valid inference depends on its correct specification.

On the other hand, the use of fixed effect procedures although robust to potential endogeneity issues, controls out relevant information in the model and impedes the identification of coefficients associated with agent-specific regressors. We propose to work with minimal assumptions on the data generating process, focusing on the first two data moments. This allows to construct a consistent and asymptotically normal estimator based on a quasi-likelihood procedure accounting for dyadic clustering. The proposed estimator has the advantage of not depending on strong assumptions on the specification of the latent components, while aiming to gain efficiency in the estimation process and inference.

Penalized Quantile Regression Based on Moments

We present a penalized estimator for quantile regression based on moments (MM-PQR) which selects predictors affecting the location and scale of the response variable and estimates quantiles in high-dimensional sparse settings.

In practice, we augment the estimator presented by Machado & Santos Silva (2019) by including a penalty term allowing the shrinkage of coefficients. This proposal benefits from the use of methods specific to the estimation of conditional means, which particularly aids in computational simplicity. The simulation study indicates the MM-PQR estimator performs well in high-dimensional sparse settings by selecting all relevant variables affecting the location and scale of the response variable given a sufficiently large sample size. Moreover, when paired with the minimax concave penalty, the MM-PQR produces a more parsimonious result compared with other alternative penalties.

Working Papers

The Gender Pay Gap in STEM – An Empirical Analysis for Portugal

At a submission process to the International Labour Review

Sectors such as science, technology, engineering and math (STEM) present a structural gender pay gap (GPG). In the present research we use official data from Portuguese earnings to investigate the GPG between 2010 and 2021 in these sectors.

We use decomposition methods to estimate the explained and unexplained components of GPG at the mean and at the distribution quartiles. Results obtained show that GPG behaves heterogeneously across STEM fields. In occupations related to Information and communication technologies (ICT) included in STEM, GPG is becoming more severe in recent years contrasting with the pattern for the overall labour force.

Publications

Mind the Gap: The Effects of Eliminating the Gender Pay Gap on Income and Poverty

Journal of Poverty, Volume 1-19, 2023

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Structural Changes in the Duration of Bull Markets and Business Cycle Dynamics

Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Volume 28, pages 333-352, 2021

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Book Chapters

Desigualdades entre mulheres e homens no mercado de trabalho

Mercado de Trabalho em Portugal - Do Teletrabalho ao Salário Mínimo. In N. Simões & N. Crespo (Eds.)

Teaching

Contacts